The sling with that Felipe Calderón was holding the arm after a cycling accident, late last month, is a metaphor for his administration. Besieged by criminal violence and an economy in decline, Calderon seems increasingly less able to prevail, sheltered behind trusted his lieutenants. Two years ago, defied the chaos in Congress and the streets of the capital to attend his inauguration after a disputed victory over Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Now, the future of energy reforms it proposes is uncertain, while the reinvigorated Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) is contained in several polls as the likely winner of the important mid-term elections next year.
Calderon has faced a difficult situation due to the slowdown of the U.S. economy. His promise to be the "jobs president" has been tarnished. The latest figures show an annual increase of less than 330 thousand formal jobs, compared with growth of the available workforce, almost one million. As in years past, others will resort to the safety valve of the informal economy or make the effort, increasingly frivolous and costly to work without papers in the United States.
Part of the informal economy has been controlled by organized crime, and in recent months the most violent gangs of drug traffickers expand their areas of interest to other lucrative areas, such as kidnapping. The march for peace in the public Aug. 30 caused an almost immediate response from the underworld, which implemented a new round of beheadings and killings of policemen. Significantly, the march, although huge, were much smaller than a similar one made four years ago. Since then, the situation has worsened. The murder rate has risen to 26 per thousand inhabitants, according to the report released by Calderon on 1 September, as compared to 18 in Colombia and more recently in most of Western Europe.
The legislative changes prevented Calderon submit its report in person to Congress, the traditional ritual had been devalued by the actions of revulsion in the House. It also withdrew its submission to the nation in a television broadcast. Only brief capsules are embedded advertising at football matches and soap. "Yes we have problems, the last-ended, but the face and we will defeat them and move forward."
The reaction from business was cautious. Ismael Plascencia, leader of the Concamin, asserted that the uncertainty cost the nation 15% of GDP. In a statement, praised the maintenance of macroeconomic stability, but cautioned that industry and economic activity in general reduce its pace. Unemployment is increasing and also the threat of inflation, he added. For the most part, politicians were also cautious, given the flurry of criticism they faced in March. The keynote speaker during the protest was Alejandro Marti, a prominent businessman whose young son was murdered along with his bodyguard after being abducted at a fake police checkpoint in Mexico City. Marti urged politicians to resign if they could not stop the violence.
Porfirio Munoz Ledo, now allied to the veteran politician Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, went further still: "you have to do away with Calderon's government, it then has to emerge an interim government." When he was accused of violating the Constitution to incite a coup d'etat, Munoz Ledo said that a change of constitution was exactly what I want.
Democracy, but not as known around the world...
It is not the first time that Munoz Ledo tries to participate in the fundamental political reform. Figure prominently in the seventies, experienced several political metamorphosis to become, in 2000, an ally of then President Vicente Fox, who commissioned him to chair a working group to reform the political system. However, Fox dismissed all suggestions for a series of patches to deteriorated framework established by the PRI during its seven decades of uninterrupted government.
The result is an idiosyncratic democracy. Although still not relección, politicians do not have to answer to their voters, but, as with the PRI, with vested interests in business and the corrupt structure of the unions, which obstructs the path of progress.
The result has been a succession of presidents, from Ernesto Zedillo, the last of the PRI, Fox and Calderon, with minority governments, increasingly fragile, that if they can barely make a dent in the growing imbroglio legislative.
The power and privileges that have accumulated unexplained have consequences. And not least in the fight against crime. Organized crime could not act with impunity if it were not for their political connections. However, only one of the great politicians have been jailed for allying with the criminals: Mario Villanueva, former governor of Quintana Roo. And that was nine years ago.
The reform has had some progress over the current government. Changes have been made in the pension and tax systems, and it is likely that this legislature approves an amendment to the hydrocarbons law. But, of the defects of the political system, these reforms have resulted from transactions that reduce their effectiveness. The attention they receive the mid-term elections in July 2009 means that even this level of cooperation will cease soon. Now that the major trading partner of Mexico is directed to a prolonged slowdown and its state oil company struggling to maintain production and reserves, the timing could not be worse.
Source: EIU
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